The Future is Closer Than You Think
February 2, 2017
The last several decades of human existence have been filled with innovation and expansion. Whether it is the development of the internet, the smartphone, laptop computers, or even something as common as the television, it isn’t ridiculous to think that someone born in the 1800’s would think we were living at the peak of human civilization.
Yet the media still promises us more in movies where the protagonist runs around a utopia complete with artificial intelligence, flying cars, and extraterrestrial travel. And so we wait for a time that seems to never really come, though we may appear to be getting closer. But are we actually closer a sci-fi future than we all think? According to some people the answer is yes.
Those some people are scientists called “futurists,” who specialize in studying the future. One of the most famous Futurists, a lead engineer at Google, Ray Kurzweil, wrote a book in 1990 where he dedicated a whole third of the book to predicting technology from the years 2009 all the way to 2099. And according to buisnessinsider.com Kurzweil’s predictions come true 86 percent of the time. For example he predicted in 1999 that most people would be using portable computers by the year 2009. More laptops were sold than computers for the first time in 2008, meaning his prediction came true. Though some of his predictions can be pretty unbelievable.
For example Kurzweil believes that by the year 2030 all humans will be software based, and in 2045 artificial intelligence will have completely passed that of human intelligence, an event he calls the singularity. According to spectrum.ieee.org however, “Neuroscientists, AI researchers, and others have objected that no one today has more than the faintest idea of how to accomplish these feats and that his time line is highly unrealistic.”
But while Ray Kurzweil may not always be a completely accurate other futurists have made claims that are not so far fetched.
Jack Uldrich a leading futurist, author, and keynote speaker, made a list of predictions he had for the future, with some predictions coming true as soon as this year. That list includes Amazon’s virtual reality mall, where shoppers can put on a pair of VR goggles and actually walk around a mall and browse products. Some other notable predictions he makes are contact lenses that can record what the person is seeing, and autonomous vehicles becoming a big part of public transportation.
Michio Kaku is yet another famous futurist who is known for making predictions of the future. In an article he wrote for The New York Times he wrote, “When making predictions I have two criteria, the laws of physics must be obeyed and prototypes must exist that demonstrate ‘proof of principle.’”
In that article he predicts that computers will become hidden in the future. He compares future computers to electricity saying, “The cloud will follow us everywhere silently and seamlessly, carrying out our wishes anytime, anywhere.” He also predicts that we will use this seamless cloud and begin to insert computers into our brains. He also predicts that aged body parts will be replaced, and parents will design their offspring.
Though not as far fetched as Kurtzweil, Kaku predicts that robots will become common in the future. He says they could take over jobs like doctors and lawyers. He also says that, “As transportation is digitized in the next decade, driverless cars will share our highways. ‘Traffic accidents’ and ‘traffic jams’ will become archaic terms. Thousands of lives will be saved every year.”
Unlike Kurtzweil, Kaku says that humanoid robots have been a disappointment and that robots the near future, “will not exercise creativity, imagination, experience, analysis, talent, common sense, or leadership.”
The future can be both scary, and beautiful depending on how you look at it, and who you ask. So whether you would like to live in the robot controlled future of Ray Kurzweil, or the very much human controlled future of Michio Kaku, the bottom line is things are always changing. Or maybe you only like to look at the very near future like Jack Uldrich? And hope for the best on anything past that, it’s up to you.